Assessing the Impact of Sustainability Risks on Disaster and Pandemic Vulnerabilities: A Global Perspective

This study examines the impact of failing to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on disaster and pandemic vulnerabilities, providing a country-level perspective to inform resilience planning. The study introduces the concept of SDG-related risk, defined as the probability of not achieving the desired SDG, and classifies these risks into three categories: high, medium, and low. Using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) framework, two probabilistic models were developed to evaluate the influence of SDG performance on disaster risk and COVID-19 vulnerability across 165 countries. The results highlight that shortcomings in SDGs such as ‘quality education’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, ‘no poverty’, and ‘affordable and clean energy’ significantly increase disaster and pandemic risks. Conversely, strong performance in ‘peace, justice, and strong institutions’ and ‘life on land’ enhances systemic resilience, reducing vulnerability. Countries with very high disaster risk are particularly exposed to deficiencies in SDGs related to ‘peace, justice, and strong institutions’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, and ‘good health and well-being’. For COVID-19 risk, ‘affordable and clean energy’ emerges as the most critical SDG influencing high-risk exposure, whereas ‘climate action’ is pivotal in predicting low-risk states. These findings demonstrate the cascading risks posed by failing to achieve critical SDGs and emphasize the need for targeted interventions to mitigate vulnerabilities to disasters and pandemics, providing actionable insights for sustainable resilience strategies.