TY - JOUR
T1 - Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals
AU - Demir, Ender
AU - Simonyan, Serdar
AU - Chen, Ming Hsiang
AU - Marco Lau, Chi Keung
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 CAUTHE - COUNCIL FOR AUSTRALASIAN TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY EDUCATION
PY - 2020/8/11
Y1 - 2020/8/11
N2 - This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.
AB - This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089276186&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
DO - 10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85089276186
SN - 1447-6770
VL - 45
SP - 23
EP - 26
JO - Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management
JF - Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management
ER -