Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

Ender Demir; Serdar Simonyan; Ming Hsiang Chen; Chi Keung Marco Lau

doi:10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006

Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

Ender Demir, Serdar Simonyan, Ming Hsiang Chen, Chi Keung Marco Lau

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	23-26
Number of pages	4
Journal	Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management
Volume	45
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
Publication status	Published - 11 Aug 2020

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© 2020 CAUTHE - COUNCIL FOR AUSTRALASIAN TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY EDUCATION

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10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006

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title = "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals",

abstract = "This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.",

author = "Ender Demir and Serdar Simonyan and Chen, \{Ming Hsiang\} and \{Marco Lau\}, \{Chi Keung\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 CAUTHE - COUNCIL FOR AUSTRALASIAN TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY EDUCATION",

year = "2020",

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day = "11",

doi = "10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006",

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T1 - Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

AU - Demir, Ender

AU - Simonyan, Serdar

AU - Chen, Ming Hsiang

AU - Marco Lau, Chi Keung

PY - 2020/8/11

Y1 - 2020/8/11

N2 - This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.

AB - This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85089276186

U2 - 10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006

DO - 10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006

M3 - Article

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SN - 1447-6770

VL - 45

SP - 23

EP - 26

JO - Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management

JF - Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management

ER -

Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

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