Closed-form solutions for regional earthquake–induced landslide prediction: rotational failure mechanism

Seismic slope stability analysis at regional scale (e.g., landslide hazard mapping, infrastructure slope management) is essential in areas that are susceptible to earthquake. Analytical infinite slope model is well suited and widely used for regional analyses which involve hundreds and thousands of slopes. Use of infinite slope model implicitly assumes shallow translational failure mechanism. However, earthquake can also cause deep rotational failure, which is more destructive and should also be considered. This study aims to develop closed-form solutions that can be efficiently used for seismic slope stability analysis at regional scale considering deep rotational failure mechanism. The existing research is critically reviewed first, and their shortcomings are identified. In contrast to the conventional “two-step” approach, a more efficient and versatile “one-step” approach is proposed in this study. The “one-step” approach can be used to calculate factor of safety for pseudo-static analysis and yield coefficient for displacement-based seismic analysis. To consider the effects of uncertainty from soil properties and seismic loading, the “one-step” approach is further extended for probabilistic analysis and application is demonstrated through a case study. The efficiency and versatility of the proposed “one-step” approach make it well suited for regional seismic slope stability analysis.