Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation

Ender Demir, Giray Gozgor, Chi Keung Marco Lau, Samuel A. Vigne

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    125 Citations (Scopus)


    This paper analyzes the prediction power of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on the daily Bitcoin returns. Using the Bayesian Graphical Structural Vector Autoregressive model as well as the Ordinary Least Squares and the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression estimations, the paper finds that the EPU has a predictive power on Bitcoin returns. Fundamentally, Bitcoin returns are negatively associated with the EPU. However, the effect is positive and significant at both lower and higher quantiles of Bitcoin returns and the EPU. In the light of these findings, the paper concludes that Bitcoin can serve as a hedging tool against uncertainty.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)145-149
    Number of pages5
    JournalFinance Research Letters
    Publication statusPublished - 12 Sept 2018

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    © 2018 Elsevier Inc.

    Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.


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