Does global fear predict fear in BRICS stock markets? Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR model

Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta, Seyedmehdi Hosseini, Chi Keung Marco Lau

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    35 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We examine the predictive power of implied volatility in the commodity and major developed stock markets for the implied volatility in individual BRICS stock markets. We use daily data from March 2011 to October 2016 and employ the newly developed Bayesian Graphical Structural Vector Autoregressive (BGSVAR) model of Ahelegbey et al. (2016). Evidence suggests that the predictability of individual implied volatilities in BRICS is generally a function of both global and within the group stock market implied volatilities, and that the role of commodity market volatility is marginal, except for South Africa. Important implications for policy-makers and portfolio-managers are discussed.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)124-142
    Number of pages19
    JournalEmerging Markets Review
    Volume34
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 12 Mar 2018

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    Publisher Copyright:
    © 2017 Elsevier B.V.

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    Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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