How do natural resource rents and productive capacity affect carbon emissions? Evidence from developed and developing countries

This study re-examines the determinants of CO₂ emissions, considering 36 developing and developed economies from 2000 to 2020. The study uses a new indicator of economic cycles, i.e., the productive capacity index. The panel models also control for the impacts of geopolitical risk, globalisation, renewable energy share, and total natural resource rents. After diagnosing the data for necessary panel diagnostics, the Westerlund cointegration test indicates a significant long-run relationship. In this context, two-step System Generalised Method of Moments (SGMM) estimations demonstrate the positive effects of geopolitical risk, productive capacity index, and natural resource rents on per capita CO₂ emissions. In contrast, globalisation and the share of renewable energy reduce CO₂ emissions. The Panel-Correlated Standard Errors (PCSE) and the Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) confirm the long-run reliability of these baseline findings. Policy implications concerning the issue of rising CO₂ emissions are also discussed.