Linked lives: The utility of an agent-based approach to modeling partnership and household formation in the context of social care

Jason Noble, Eric Silverman, Jakub Bijak, Stuart Rossiter, Maria Evandrou, Seth Bullock, Athina Vlachantoni, Jane Falkingham

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    Abstract

    The UK's population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of “linked lives” and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages1-12
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Dec 2012
    Event2012 Winter Simulation Conference - Berlin, Germany
    Duration: 9 Dec 201212 Dec 2012

    Conference

    Conference2012 Winter Simulation Conference
    Abbreviated titleWSC 2012
    CountryGermany
    CityBerlin
    Period9/12/1212/12/12

    Bibliographical note

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    Noble, J., Silverman, E., Bijak, J., Rossiter, S., Evandrou, M., Bullock, S., Vlachantoni, A., & Falkingham, J. (2012). Linked lives: The utility of an agent-based approach to modeling partnership and household formation in the context of social care. 1-12. Paper presented at 2012 Winter Simulation Conference, Berlin, Germany. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2012.6465264