The UK's population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of “linked lives” and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes.
|Publication status||Published - Dec 2012|
|Event||2012 Winter Simulation Conference - Berlin, Germany|
Duration: 9 Dec 2012 → 12 Dec 2012
|Conference||2012 Winter Simulation Conference|
|Abbreviated title||WSC 2012|
|Period||9/12/12 → 12/12/12|