Machine Learning-Based Dry Gas Reservoirs Z-Factor Prediction for Sustainable Energy Transitions to Net Zero Energy Transitions to Net Zero

Dry gas reservoirs play a pivotal transitional role in meeting the net-zero target worldwide. Accurate modelling and simulation of this energy source require fast and reliable prediction of the gas compressibility factor (Z-factor). The experimental measurements of Z-factor are the most reliable source; however, they are expensive and time-consuming. This makes developing accurate predictive models essential. Traditional methods, such as empirical correlations and Equations of States (EoSs), often lack accuracy and computational efficiency. This study aims to address these limitations by leveraging the predictive power of machine learning (ML) techniques. Hence in this study three ML models of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), and Genetic Programming (GP) were developed. These models were trained on a comprehensive dataset comprising 1079 samples where pseudo-reduced pressure (Ppr) and pseudo-reduced temperature (Tpr) served as input and experimentally measured Z-factors as output. The performance of the developed ML models was benchmarked against two cubic EoSs of Peng–Robinson (PR) and van der Waals (vdW), and two semi-empirical correlations of Dranchuk-Abou-Kassem (DAK) and Hall and Yarborough (HY), and recent developed ML based models, using statistical metrics of Mean Squared Error (MSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and Average Absolute Relative Deviation Percentage (AARD%). The proposed ANN model reduces average prediction error by approximately 70% relative to the PR equation of state and by over 35% compared with the DAK correlation, while maintaining robust performance across the full Ppr and Tpr of dry gas systems. Additionally paired t-tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests performed on the ML results confirmed that the ANN model achieved statistically significant improvements over the other models. Moreover, two physical equations using the white-box models of GMDH and GP were proposed as a function of Ppr and Tpr for prediction of the dry gas Z-factor. The sensitivity analysis of the data shows that the Ppr has the highest positive effect of 88% on Z-factor while Tpr has a moderate effect of 12%. This study presents the first unified, statistically validated comparison of ANN, GMDH, and GP models for accurate and interpretable Z-factor prediction. The developed models can be used as an alternative tool to bridge the limitation of cubic EoSs and limited accuracy and applicability of empirical models.