Measuring Decision Accuracy and Confidence of Mock Air Defence Operators

This study aimed to understand more fully some of the factors that influence decisions as related to air defence in a naval vessel’s operation room. The study considered the impact of decision criticality (DC) and task load (TL) on measures of accuracy, confidence, and within-subjects confidence-accuracy (W-S C-A; a measure of metacognition). Personality constructs, workload, and situational awareness were also assessed. Participants were allocated to either a high, moderate, or low TL condition. Each took part in a computer-generated simulated air defence scenario where they were required to make a range of decisions and provide a corresponding confidence rating for each decision taken. Results showed that low DC increased confidence in decisions and high DC increased decision accuracy. Thus, DC significantly impacts decision confidence and decision accuracy. In addition, those less tolerant of ambiguity were less accurate in their decision-making. Future studies should take account of these factors.