Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Lisa M. Baldini; James U. L. Baldini; Jim N. McElwaine; Amy Benoit Frappier; Yemane Asmerom; Kam-biu Liu; Keith M. Prufer; Harriet E. Ridley; Victor Polyak; Douglas J. Kennett; Colin G. Macpherson; Valorie V. Aquino; Jaime Awe; Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach

doi:10.1038/srep37522

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Lisa M. Baldini, James U. L. Baldini, Jim N. McElwaine, Amy Benoit Frappier, Yemane Asmerom, Kam-biu Liu, Keith M. Prufer, Harriet E. Ridley, Victor Polyak, Douglas J. Kennett, Colin G. Macpherson, Valorie V. Aquino, Jaime Awe, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on
tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western
Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio
technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone
activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually
until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests
that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western
Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts
were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results
strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on
the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	5-8
Journal	Scientific Reports
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522
Publication status	Published - 23 Nov 2016

Access to Document

10.1038/srep37522Licence: CC BY

Lisa Baldini
- L.Baldinitees.acuk
- SHLS Life Sciences - Associate Professor of Research
- Centre for Biodiscovery
- Centre for Sustainable Engineering
Person: Academic

Cite this

Baldini, L. M., Baldini, J. U. L., McElwaine, J. N., Frappier, A. B., Asmerom, Y., Liu, K., Prufer, K. M., Ridley, H. E., Polyak, V., Kennett, D. J., Macpherson, C. G., Aquino, V. V., Awe, J., & Breitenbach, S. F. M. (2016). Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries. Scientific Reports, 5-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522

@article{d32ba857a4aa41b190283cc10b8600c4,

title = "Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries",

abstract = "Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls ontropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of westernCaribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratiotechnique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cycloneactivity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased graduallyuntil the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggeststhat the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the westernCaribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shiftswere largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our resultsstrongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts onthe financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.",

author = "Baldini, {Lisa M.} and Baldini, {James U. L.} and McElwaine, {Jim N.} and Frappier, {Amy Benoit} and Yemane Asmerom and Kam-biu Liu and Prufer, {Keith M.} and Ridley, {Harriet E.} and Victor Polyak and Kennett, {Douglas J.} and Macpherson, {Colin G.} and Aquino, {Valorie V.} and Jaime Awe and Breitenbach, {Sebastian F. M.}",

year = "2016",

month = nov,

day = "23",

doi = "10.1038/srep37522",

language = "English",

pages = "5--8",

journal = "Scientific Reports",

issn = "2045-2322",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

AU - Baldini, Lisa M.

AU - Baldini, James U. L.

AU - McElwaine, Jim N.

AU - Frappier, Amy Benoit

AU - Asmerom, Yemane

AU - Liu, Kam-biu

AU - Prufer, Keith M.

AU - Ridley, Harriet E.

AU - Polyak, Victor

AU - Kennett, Douglas J.

AU - Macpherson, Colin G.

AU - Aquino, Valorie V.

AU - Awe, Jaime

AU - Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

PY - 2016/11/23

Y1 - 2016/11/23

N2 - Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls ontropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of westernCaribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratiotechnique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cycloneactivity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased graduallyuntil the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggeststhat the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the westernCaribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shiftswere largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our resultsstrongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts onthe financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

AB - Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls ontropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of westernCaribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratiotechnique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cycloneactivity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased graduallyuntil the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggeststhat the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the westernCaribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shiftswere largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our resultsstrongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts onthe financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

U2 - 10.1038/srep37522

DO - 10.1038/srep37522

M3 - Article

SN - 2045-2322

SP - 5

EP - 8

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

ER -

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Abstract

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Profiles

Lisa Baldini

Cite this