Reservoir sedimentation based on uncertainty analysis

Reservoir sedimentation can result in loss of much needed reservoir storage capacity, reducing the useful life of dams. Thus, sufficient sediment storage capacity should be provided for the reservoir design stage to ensure that sediment accumulation will not impair the functioning of the reservoir during the useful operational-economic life of the project. However, an important issue to consider when estimating reservoir sedimentation and accumulation is the uncertainty involved in reservoir sedimentation. In this paper, the basic factors influencing the density of sediments deposited in reservoirs are discussed, and uncertainties in reservoir sedimentation have been determined using the Delta method. Further, Kenny Reservoir in the White River Basin in northwestern Colorado was selected to determine the density of deposits in the reservoir and the coefficient of variation. The results of this investigation have indicated that by using the Delta method in the case of Kenny Reservoir, the uncertainty regarding accumulated sediment density, expressed by the coefficient of variation for a period of 50 years of reservoir operation, could be reduced to about 10%. Results of the Delta method suggest an applicable approach for dead storage planning via interfacing with uncertainties associated with reservoir sedimentation.