Abstract
In this paper we present an agent-based model of
the ageing UK population. The goal of this model
is to integrate statistical demographic projections of
the UK population with an agent-based platform
that allows us to examine the interaction between
population change and the cost of social care in an
ageing population. The model captures the basic
processes which aect the demand for and supply of
social care, including fertility, mortality, health sta-
tus, and partnership formation and dissolution. The
mortality and fertility rates in this population are
drawn from statistical demographic projections until
2050 based on UK population data from 1951 - 2011.
Results show that, in general, we expect the cost
of social care in the UK to rise signicantly as the
population continues to age. An in-depth sensitivity
analysis performed using Gaussian Process Emula-
tors conrms that the level of care need within the
population and the age of retirement have the most
profound impact on the projected cost of social care.
the ageing UK population. The goal of this model
is to integrate statistical demographic projections of
the UK population with an agent-based platform
that allows us to examine the interaction between
population change and the cost of social care in an
ageing population. The model captures the basic
processes which aect the demand for and supply of
social care, including fertility, mortality, health sta-
tus, and partnership formation and dissolution. The
mortality and fertility rates in this population are
drawn from statistical demographic projections until
2050 based on UK population data from 1951 - 2011.
Results show that, in general, we expect the cost
of social care in the UK to rise signicantly as the
population continues to age. An in-depth sensitivity
analysis performed using Gaussian Process Emula-
tors conrms that the level of care need within the
population and the age of retirement have the most
profound impact on the projected cost of social care.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 27th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation |
| Editors | W. Rekdalsbakken, R.T. Bye, H. Zhang |
| Publisher | European Council for Modeling and Simulation |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9780956494467 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 30 May 2013 |