Simulating the cost of social care in an ageing population.

E. (Eric) Silverman, J. (Jason) Hilton, J. (Jakub) Bijak

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    In this paper we present an agent-based model of
    the ageing UK population. The goal of this model
    is to integrate statistical demographic projections of
    the UK population with an agent-based platform
    that allows us to examine the interaction between
    population change and the cost of social care in an
    ageing population. The model captures the basic
    processes which aect the demand for and supply of
    social care, including fertility, mortality, health sta-
    tus, and partnership formation and dissolution. The
    mortality and fertility rates in this population are
    drawn from statistical demographic projections until
    2050 based on UK population data from 1951 - 2011.
    Results show that, in general, we expect the cost
    of social care in the UK to rise signicantly as the
    population continues to age. An in-depth sensitivity
    analysis performed using Gaussian Process Emula-
    tors conrms that the level of care need within the
    population and the age of retirement have the most
    profound impact on the projected cost of social care.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the 27th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation
    EditorsW. Rekdalsbakken, R.T. Bye, H. Zhang
    Publisher European Council for Modeling and Simulation
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Print)9780956494467
    Publication statusPublished - 30 May 2013


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