The wind and storm induced failure in crops and trees

Wind and storm damage represent a major source of loss in agriculture and forestry. In the UK alone, crop lodging costs an average of £100 million annually, while storm-induced failures in trees remain a major problem, having caused several fatalities in recent years. Crops and trees are exposed to highly variable aerodynamic forces, and their response depends on structural properties and environmental conditions. Failure mechanisms include lodging in cereal crops, where stems bend permanently under wind pressure, as well as stem breakage and uprooting in trees. These events not only reduce yield and timber value but also weaken plants against pests, disease, and further stress.

To better understand and predict these failures, we have established mechanical models that represent the lodging process in crops, capturing the interactions between wind loading, stem strength, and soil conditions that influence root anchorage. Building on this, we have established a probabilistic framework that analyses meteorological data to quantify the likelihood of wind-induced failure across a range of conditions. This allows us to move beyond deterministic thresholds and instead assess risk under natural variability in wind speed, gust structure, and soil moisture. By incorporating climate change projections, we can evaluate how increasing storm frequency and intensity may amplify future risks. Together, these advances support the development of more resilient agricultural systems.