Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices

Juncal Cunado, Rangan Gupta, Chi Keung Marco Lau, Xin Sheng

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    7 Citations (Scopus)


    This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)692-706
    Number of pages15
    JournalDefence and Peace Economics
    Issue number6
    Publication statusPublished - 28 Jan 2019

    Bibliographical note

    Funding Information:
    This work was supported by the?Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci?n y Universidades, Spain [ECO2017-83183-R].

    Publisher Copyright:
    © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

    Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.


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