Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices

Juncal Cunado; Rangan Gupta; Chi Keung Marco Lau; Xin Sheng

doi:10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854

Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices

Juncal Cunado, Rangan Gupta, Chi Keung Marco Lau, Xin Sheng

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	692-706
Number of pages	15
Journal	Defence and Peace Economics
Volume	31
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854
Publication status	Published - 28 Jan 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the?Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci?n y Universidades, Spain [ECO2017-83183-R].

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854

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title = "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices",

abstract = "This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.",

author = "Juncal Cunado and Rangan Gupta and Lau, {Chi Keung Marco} and Xin Sheng",

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AU - Cunado, Juncal

AU - Gupta, Rangan

AU - Lau, Chi Keung Marco

AU - Sheng, Xin

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the?Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci?n y Universidades, Spain [ECO2017-83183-R]. Publisher Copyright: © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2019/1/28

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N2 - This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.

AB - This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.

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Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices

Abstract

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