US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices : The Role of Partisan Conflict

Rangan Gupta, Chi Keung Marco Lau, Stephen M. Miller, Mark E. Wohar

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)


    Fiscal policy shocks exert wide-reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and divided government leads not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between fiscal policy and asset prices in the US economy conditional on the degree of partisan conflict. We analyze whether a higher degree of partisan conflict (legislative gridlock) reduces the efficacy of the effect and response of fiscal policy on and to asset price movements, respectively. We find that partisan conflict does not significantly affect the relationships between the fiscal surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) and housing and equity returns. Rather, if important, partisan conflict affects the actual implementation of fiscal policy actions.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)851-862
    Number of pages12
    JournalInternational Review of Finance
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2019

    Bibliographical note

    Publisher Copyright:
    © 2018 International Review of Finance Ltd. 2018

    Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.


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